Everyday, currencies are traded in an international foreign exchange market, otherwise known as the forex market, with the main marketplaces (otherwise known as bourses) existing in the world financial centes New York, London, Tokyo, Frankfurt and Zurich. Historically, the only way to participate was from the trading floor of one of these bourses, but today, people can trade forex from anywhere through a secure internet connection and a PC.

Today traders operate in a global network, taking positions in the market and making investment decisions based on either relative value between two currencies, or a particular currency actual price. Currency value fluctuations are constantly renegotiated through trading activity, and this activity, and the corresponding currency values are also indicators of the levels of currency supply.

An example of market behaviour greater demand for the Euro might indicate a weakening supply. Low supply and increased demand will drive the price of the Euro up against other currencies like the dollar, until the price better reflects what traders are prepared to pay when short supply exists. Another way to look at this situation is this higher demand means it will cost more dollars to buy the Euro, which equates to a weakening of the dollar in comparison. Analysis of situations such as in this example forms the basis for a trader investment decisions, and they will purchase or sell currency accordingly.

This should be remembered, as while many see the foreign exchange market as the vehicle for converting their home currency while travelling abroad, many others choose to use the market to advance their financial position and secure their future.

Jay Moncliff

Did you know that the foreign exchange market (also known as FX or forex) is the largest market in the world? In fact, over $1 trillion is traded in the currency markets on a daily basis. This article is certainly not a primer for currency trading, but it will help you understand exchange rates and why some fluctuate while others do not.What Is an Exchange Rate?An exchange rate is the rate at which one currency can be exchanged for another. In other words, it is the value of another country's currency compared to that of your own. If you are traveling to another country, you need to "buy" the local currency. Just like the price of any asset, the exchange rate is the price at which you can buy that currency. If you are traveling to Egypt, for example, and the exchange rate for USD 1.00 is EGP 5.50, this means that for every U.S. dollar, you can buy five and a half Egyptian pounds. Theoretically, identical assets should sell at the same price in different countries, because the exchange rate must maintain the inherent value of one currency against the other.
FixedThere are two ways the price of a currency can be determined against another. A fixed, or pegged, rate is a rate the government (central bank) sets and maintains as the official exchange rate. A set price will be determined against a major world currency (usually the U.S. dollar, but also other major currencies such as the euro, the yen, or a basket of currencies). In order to maintain the local exchange rate, the central bank buys and sells its own currency on the foreign exchange market in return for the currency to which it is pegged.
If, for example, it is determined that the value of a single unit of local currency is equal to USD 3.00, the central bank will have to ensure that it can supply the market with those dollars. In order to maintain the rate, the central bank must keep a high level of foreign reserves. This is a reserved amount of foreign currency held by the central bank which it can use to release (or absorb) extra funds into (or out of) the market. This ensures an appropriate money supply, appropriate fluctuations in the market (inflation/deflation), and ultimately, the exchange rate. The central bank can also adjust the official exchange rate when necessary.
FloatingUnlike the fixed rate, a floating exchange rate is determined by the private market through supply and demand. A floating rate is often termed "self-correcting", as any differences in supply and demand will automatically be corrected in the market. Take a look at this simplified model: if demand for a currency is low, its value will decrease, thus making imported goods more expensive and thus stimulating demand for local goods and services. This in turn will generate more jobs, and hence an auto-correction would occur in the market. A floating exchange rate is constantly changing.
In reality, no currency is wholly fixed or floating. In a fixed regime, market pressures can also influence changes in the exchange rate. Sometimes, when a local currency does reflect its true value against its pegged currency, a "black market" which is more reflective of actual supply and demand may develop. A central bank will often then be forced to revalue or devalue the official rate so that the rate is in line with the unofficial one, thereby halting the activity of the black market.
In a floating regime, the central bank may also intervene when it is necessary to ensure stability and to avoid inflation; however, it is less often that the central bank of a floating regime will interfere.
The World Once PeggedBetween 1870 and 1914, there was a global fixed exchange rate. Currencies were linked to gold, meaning that the value of a local currency was fixed at a set exchange rate to gold ounces. This was known as the gold standard. This allowed for unrestricted capital mobility as well as global stability in currencies and trade; however, with the start of World War I, the gold standard was abandoned.
At the end of World War II, the conference at Bretton Woods, in an effort to generate global economic stability and increased volumes of global trade, established the basic rules and regulations governing international exchange. As such, an international monetary system, embodied in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was established to promote foreign trade and to maintain the monetary stability of countries and therefore that of the global economy
It was agreed that currencies would once again be fixed, or pegged, but this time to the U.S. dollar, which in turn was pegged to gold at USD 35/ounce. What this meant was that the value of a currency was directly linked with the value of the U.S. dollar. So if you needed to buy Japanese yen, the value of the yen would be expressed in U.S. dollars, whose value in turn was determined in the value of gold. If a country needed to readjust the value of its currency, it could approach the IMF to adjust the pegged value of its currency. The peg was maintained until 1971, when the U.S. dollar could no longer hold the value of the pegged rate of USD 35/ounce of gold.
From then on, major governments adopted a floating system, and all attempts to move back to a global peg were eventually abandoned in 1985. Since then, no major economies have gone back to a peg, and the use of gold as a peg has been completely abandoned.
Why Peg?The reasons to peg a currency are linked to stability. Especially in today's developing nations, a country may decide to peg its currency to create a stable atmosphere for foreign investment. With a peg the investor will always know what his/her investment value is, and therefore will not have to worry about daily fluctuations. A pegged currency can also help to lower inflation rates and generate demand, which results from greater confidence in the stability of the currency.
Fixed regimes, however, can often lead to severe financial crises since a peg is difficult to maintain in the long run. This was seen in the Mexican (1995), Asian and Russian (1997) financial crises: an attempt to maintain a high value of the local currency to the peg resulted in the currencies eventually becoming overvalued. This meant that the governments could no longer meet the demands to convert the local currency into the foreign currency at the pegged rate. With speculation and panic, investors scrambled to get out their money and convert it into foreign currency before the local currency was devalued against the peg; foreign reserve supplies eventually became depleted. In Mexico's case, the government was forced to devalue the peso by 30%. In Thailand, the government eventually had to allow the currency to float, and by the end of 1997, the bhat had lost its value by 50% as the market's demand and supply readjusted the value of the local currency.
Countries with pegs are often associated with having unsophisticated capital markets and weak regulating institutions. The peg is therefore there to help create stability in such an environment. It takes a stronger system as well as a mature market to maintain a float. When a country is forced to devalue its currency, it is also required to proceed with some form of economic reform, like implementing greater transparency, in an effort to strengthen its financial institutions.
Some governments may choose to have a "floating," or "crawling" peg, whereby the government reassesses the value of the peg periodically and then changes the peg rate accordingly. Usually the change is devaluation, but one that is controlled so that market panic is avoided. This method is often used in the transition from a peg to a floating regime, and it allows the government to "save face" by not being forced to devalue in an uncontrollable crisis.
Although the peg has worked in creating global trade and monetary stability, it was used only at a time when all the major economies were a part of it. And while a floating regime is not without its flaws, it has proven to be a more efficient means of determining the long term value of a currency and creating equilibrium in the international market.

by Reem Heakal

Those trading in the foreign-exchange market (forex) rely on the same two basic forms of analysis that are used in the stock market: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. The uses of technical analysis in forex are much the same: price is assumed to reflect all news, and the charts are the objects of analysis. But unlike companies, countries have no balance sheets, so how can fundamental analysis be conducted on a currency? Since fundamental analysis is about looking at the intrinsic value of an investment, its application in forex entails looking at the economic conditions that affect the valuation of a nation's currency. Here we look at some of the major fundamental factors that play a role in the movement of a currency.
Economic IndicatorsEconomic indicators are reports released by the government or a private organization that detail a country's economic performance. Economic reports are the means by which a country's economic health is directly measured, but do remember that a great deal of factors and policies will affect a nation's economic performance.
These reports are released at scheduled times, providing the market with an indication of whether a nation's economy has improved or declined. The effects of these reports are comparable to how earnings reports, SEC filings and other releases may affect securities. In forex, as in the stock market, any deviation from the norm can cause large price and volume movements.
You may recognize some of these economic reports, such as the unemployment numbers, which are well publicized. Others, like housing stats, receive little coverage. However, each indicator serves a particular purpose, and can be useful. Here we outline four major reports, some of which are comparable to particular fundamental indicators used by equity investors:
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP)The GDP is considered the broadest measure of a country's economy, and it represents the total market value of all goods and services produced in a country during a given year. Since the GDP figure itself is often considered a lagging indicator, most traders focus on the two reports that are issued in the months before the final GDP figures: the advance report and the preliminary report. Significant revisions between these reports can cause considerable volatility. The GDP is somewhat analogous to the gross profit margin of a publicly traded company in that they are both measures of internal growth.
Retail SalesThe retail-sales report measures the total receipts of all retail stores in a given country. This measurement is derived from a diverse sample of retail stores throughout a nation. The report is particularly useful because it is a timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns that is adjusted for seasonal variables. It can be used to predict the performance of more important lagging indicators, and to assess the immediate direction of an economy. Revisions to advanced reports of retail sales can cause significant volatility. The retail sales report can be compared to the sales activity of a publicly traded company.
Industrial ProductionThis report shows the change in the production of factories, mines and utilities within a nation. It also reports their 'capacity utilizations', the degree to which the capacity of each of these factories is being used. It is ideal for a nation to see an increase of production while being at its maximum or near maximum capacity utilization.
Traders using this indicator are usually concerned with utility production, which can be extremely volatile since the utilities industry, and in turn the trading of and demand for energy, is heavily affected by changes in weather. Significant revisions between reports can be caused by weather changes, which in turn, can cause volatility in the nation's currency.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)The CPI is a measure of the change in the prices of consumer goods across over 200 different categories. This report, when compared to a nation's exports, can be used to see if a country is making or losing money on its products and services. Be careful, however, to monitor the exports - it is a focus that is popular with many traders because the prices of exports often change relative to a currency's strength or weakness. Some of the other major indicators include the purchasing managers index (PMI), producer price index (PPI), durable goods report, employment cost index (ECI), and housing starts. And don't forget the many privately issued reports, the most famous of which is the Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey. All of these provide a valuable resource to traders, if used properly.

So, How Are These Used?Since economic indicators gauge a country's economic state, changes in the conditions reported will therefore directly affect the price and volume of a country's currency. It is important to keep in mind, however, that the indicators discussed above are not the only things that affect a currency's price. There are third-party reports, technical factors, and many other things that also can drastically affect a currency's valuation. Here are a few useful tips that may help you when conducting fundamental analysis in the foreign exchange market:
Keep an economic calendar on hand that lists the indicators and when they are due to be released. Also, keep an eye on the future; often markets will move in anticipation of a certain indicator or report due to be released at a later time. Be informed about the economic indicators that are capturing most of the market's attention at any given time. Such indicators are catalysts for the largest price and volume movements. For example, when the U.S. dollar is weak, inflation is often one of the most watched indicators. Know the market expectations for the data, and then pay attention to whether or not the expectations are met. That is far more important than the data itself. Occasionally, there is a drastic difference between the expectations and actual results and, if there is, be aware of the possible justifications for this difference. Don't react too quickly to the news. Oftentimes, numbers are released and then revised, and things can change quickly. Pay attention to these revisions, as they may be a useful tool for seeing the trends and reacting more accurately to future reports. ConclusionThere are many economic indicators, and even more private reports that can be used to evaluate the fundamentals of forex. It's important to take the time to not only look at the numbers, but also understand what they mean and how they affect a nation's economy. When properly used, these indicators can be an invaluable resource for any currency trader.

by Justin Kuepper